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We’re in the quietest part of the NFL offseason. The draft is done, the schedule is out, and there are a few OTAs and mandatory minicamp to get through before the summer break into training camp. Seattle Seahawks preseason gets underway in less than three months!
Questions were submitted in this week’s Field Gulls mailbag, and I’ve selected the most interesting ones to answer! Thanks to everyone who submitted.
Donut receipt - QB3
Yeah I think you need a third quarterback on the team to have a QB3 competition. Most likely, Seattle will sign some veteran name or a fringe talent to take QB3 snaps in preseason, cut that player, and we’re back to just Geno and Howell on the 53-man roster. The emergency QB rule getting tweaked pretty much justifies only keeping two QBs.
Ahenobarbus - The UDFA gems
On offense it’s either Washington tight end Jack Westover or Boise State running back George Holani. It seems there’s always a UDFA running back (regardless of team) who becomes a preseason darling. Defensively I go with Nelson Ceaser, the versatile edge rusher from Houston. I’ll have something on him when I’m back from my trip, but I can see Ceaser pushing Darrell Taylor for a roster spot. It’s actually a mild surprise he wasn’t even drafted looking at his highlights and body of work.
I believe Holani has the best shot to make the roster just because teams generally will roster four running backs, followed by Westover as a possible TE/FB/H-back option, and then Ceaser as least likely. Maybe I’m bullish on this UDFA class but I believe the Seahawks will have multiple UDFA rookies on the Week 1 roster.
Ron LaCroix - Laken Tomlinson and Mike Morris
I don’t expect him to be very good, but blocking for New York Jets quarterbacks must be a miserable experience. It’s distinctly possible he’s washed up, but for “Haha, Jets!” content purposes, I’d appreciate him finding the fountain of youth.
The plan was to make him a 3-tech under Pete Carroll and Clint Hurtt. I don’t think Macdonald will have a change of plans for Morris, and I don’t see him being a big edge rusher. He’s probably going to be a rotational player and not a major part of the defense, but rotational players matter! I hope he’s recovering well from surgery and shines in preseason.
JMiles1978: Opposing fans at Lumen Field
“At least 60% of the audience” in your own building is not a good thing. The Steelers have a ridiculously loyal and well-traveled fanbase, but that particular game was gross for how loud the stadium sounded for every major Pittsburgh play. I’m not going to single out fans or any of that, but when you take out the empty stadium 2020 COVID-19 season, the Seahawks are barely above .500 at home since 2017. What I have noticed is a substantial increase in away fans at Lumen whenever a reputable team and/or big opposing fanbase is in town.
SeeMoewe91 - Most improved player candidates
Offense: Jaxon Smith-Njigba. When I argue for JSN as “most improved” that means his route tree expands, his role in the offense increases, his drops decrease (he had quite a few bad ones last year, but he was a rookie who just had wrist surgery), and his productivity surges to that of a borderline number one receiver. This is partly down to my belief in Ryan Grubb as an offensive coordinator and in JSN for his outstanding talents as a football player. With Tyler Lockett on the other side of 30, I’m looking for JSN to emerge as a star sooner rather than later.
Defense: Derick Hall. This is sort of by default because if Riq Woolen improves from Year 2 then that means he’s closer to his rookie performance, which feels less of an improvement and more of returning to his best form (or exceeding it). Hall was underwhelming as a pass rusher (0 sacks and low pressure rate), showed some promise against the run in a limited role, but ideally he has that similar second season leap as Boye Mafe.
Clamdragon - Seattle’s offensive line
Week 1: Charles Cross-Christian Haynes-Olu Oluwatimi-Anthony Bradford-Abraham Lucas.
Week 18: Stone Forsythe-Christian Haynes-Nick Harris-Sautoa Laumea-Michael Jerrell
The Seahawks will be resting starters after securing home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Therefore, I’m not worried about Week 18.
I’m grimacing a bit at how inexperienced my legitimately serious Week 1 OL looks. This might be a “growing pains” season for the entire interior. It’s an offensive line with promise, which is something we haven’t said much about past Seahawks units.
OLYROB - Extra meeting guys, coaching staff inexperience
JSN on offense and Byron Murphy on defense. Didn’t have to give this much thought. An elite wide receiver (or tight end) is basically a must in today’s NFL. Murphy being a potential game-wrecker on the defensive interior would be so crucial for a Seahawks team lacking in that department.
I’d be lying if I wasn’t experiencing some trepidation with having assistant coaches with no NFL experience on the offensive line and at offensive coordinator. Then you get to Mike Macdonald’s first time as an NFL head coach and it’ll be a learning process for everyone. It’s partially why I believe Leslie Frazier was hired. Re Grubb: I cannot recall any NFL offensive coordinators who assumed playcalling duties without ever having prior experience in the league.
The best case scenario is they’re fresh, innovative faces in a sport that loves retreads and recycling the same names. Worst case scenario is everyone from Grubb to Huff to the other non-NFL experienced assistants are quite literally out of their league and it shows. Some great unknowns but it’s probably more welcome then potentially going down Retread Road.
While I expect Grubb to carry over a lot of his college concepts to the NFL, the two levels of the sport are still too fundamentally different to do a direct C&P. It’s functionally impossible since the hashmarks are aligned wider in college than in the NFL.
If you heard Geno Smith at OTAs earlier this week, he made reference to Grubb planning to have less pre-snap shifts and motion in the pros than he had at Washington.
Smith described it further as “an offense that’s going to spread the ball around and trust the quarterbacks to make the right decisions … pre-and post-snap. I feel like that’s something I’m really good at.”
— Brady Henderson (@BradyHenderson) May 22, 2024
Smith said it won’t have as many shifts/motions as Grubb’s UW offenses.
Geno also referenced being a dropback passer and how Grubb’s offense suits him. Keep in mind that it’s May and the new systems are being installed.
The Seahawks are in the early stages of installing new OC Ryan Grubb’s offense. Geno Smith feels he has “a really good grasp” of it so far, and that it fits his skillset in a few ways.
— Brady Henderson (@BradyHenderson) May 22, 2024
Said Smith: “I feel like I’m a dropback passer and I feel like this is a dropback offense …” pic.twitter.com/IXGIbq9Zii
Is this a sign of less play-action than desired? Griff Sturgeon (Cmikesspinmove) has helped sift through the numbers of Grubb’s early down play-action rate compared to the Seahawks during that span.
Grubb uses play action (excluding RPO) on 15.6% of his early down snaps (by percent of all snaps, not just pass attempt) per Sports Info Solutions.
— over zone y (@cmikesspinmove) May 23, 2024
Still high, but less than Seattle in recent years. https://t.co/mSaJYp9zxe
Then there’s the run blocking scheme. He relied predominantly on zone at Fresno State and in his first season at Washington, then it shifted toward a greater mix of gap vs. zone.
It's interesting seeing how Ryan Grubb and Scott Huff shifted the Washington Huskies run game from 2022 to 2023:
— Under Zone X (Frisco)/Phoenix Check/Stick Slasher2 (@mattyfbrown) May 21, 2024
2023 they were:
40% gap concepts
60% zone concepts
2022:
22% gap
77% zone
Fresno State in 2021, Grubb was:
21% gap
77% zone
(Data via Sports Info Solutions)
My guess is we see mostly zone with the Seahawks. The projected starters are all comfortable in zone, so that shouldn’t be a major thing. Fant “going off” in this system is really dependent on how they distribute the targets. Maybe what you mean is he’s a lower volume, high-efficiency and YAC target who moves the chains and rips off chunk plays. Something like 55 catches for 800 yards and 5 touchdowns sounds good to me. Getting Fant in space is the best way for him to operate, and I believe that’s going to be Grubb’s goal in this offense.
Lastly, I anticipate the Seahawks being an above-average screen team both in attempts and efficiency. The JSN screens aren’t going away (nor should they), but we may see different wrinkles than what we saw with Shane Waldron.
That’s it for this edition of the mailbag! We’ll circle back around after mandatory minicamp.
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