Playing the Mike Macdonald-Kyle Shanahan-Sean McVay expectations game for a minute

For 13 fortunate seasons, all strung in a row, although some higher-strung than others, fans of the Seattle Seahawks held one certainty close: Pete Carroll was at the franchise’s helm. For better or worse. Usually better. Occasionally worse.

(With Pete at the aforementioned helm, his presence was maybe the only certainty, but I digress less than two paragraphs in.)

Indeed, the only thing more sure than a Russell Wilson-shaped stork deftly depositing another newborn rainbow touchdown into Tyler Lockett’s cradling arms was the stability at the top of the organization. While other coaches came and went, often to roundly reaped ridicule — remember Jim Tomsula? Steve Wilks? Chip Kelly? That dude before Jeff Fisher? Jeff Fisher, for that matter? — the Seahawks executives, fans, owner, and players themselves all rode with Pete Carroll.

Until abruptly, they didn’t.

Maybe it was the right time to jettison Carroll and chart a new course. Maybe the move happened two years too late, or maybe ‘twas two years too early. We’ll leave that assessment to future generations. Actually no we won’t. Because new generations start immediately with new regimes. The next generation is now. Time to see if Mike Macdonald can make it so.

Peer Pressure

On the surface, Macdonald is thrust into a coaching cage match of a division. Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay are continually cited as two of the top offensive minds in the game, if not the top two outright. The Cardinals just picked six times in the top 90 of the draft and often played above what their 4-13 record would suggest.

Each of Macdonald’s immediate peers has had a bit of a different start. Newcomers to the division tend to either start real cold or real hot. With Carroll, of course, charting his own independent course.

Really, unless you’re one of the guys who inherited a mess (Pete, Kyle), it’s going to be very apparent very quickly if you’re cut out for the job... or not. Fisher flailed in mediocrity for a while, bless his little heart and its 7-9 resting rate.

So you’ve got three instant success stories, two who took a while but were worth the wait, one Jeff, and five train wrecks. Purely on the 30,000-foot math, Macdonald has a roughly 50 percent chance of flameout. Well, I don’t believe the math. It’s gotta count for something that the new Seahawks coach’s patron is Jim Harbaugh? Harbs didn’t waste any time acclimating to the division, as people will remember:

2011: won NFC West, lost NFCCG on a fumbled punt return, of all things

2012: won conference, then forgot about Frank Gore’s legs, and Colin Kaepernick’s too, when it counted most

2013: almost won the NFC again. A former player of his got in the way. Shit happens.

2014: — ok those previous three years were the real window —

2015: fired after amassing a 44-19-1 record. Mind-boggling. I somehow doubt the Seahawks will dump MikeMac if he loses five games a year.

Obviously the dream is to hit the ground running like McVay, Harbaugh or Arians. But lasting three years is key, as Shanahan and Carroll proved, and as all the misfits also proved, only in reverse. And Mike Macdonald is not Jeff Fisher even if the Seahawks lose nine games this fall. For one, he was the up-and-coming mind every team wanted. Only one team got him, though. This is what it must feel like to go from Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love. The comparison is especially salient because Love sure seems to have all the tools, but still has mountains to climb.

Armed with a six year-deal, Macdonald doesn’t have to make the playoffs right away. But from Week 1 of Year 1, his success will be compared to his peers, and the ones who remain have made that comparison very challenging. The division is substantially tougher now than when Carroll showed up and won it by default, and tougher yet than when the 49ers and Rams brought in their current two troublemakers in the same offseason. (Wild how both front offices hit simultaneous home runs.)

Nobody really expects the 2024 Seahawks to win the West. I just want to propose that the range of acceptable outcomes include losing 11 games while remaining on the upswing. Because, come on, Shanahan and McVay weren’t immediately tasked with besting two of the game’s top five coaches like Macdonald will be. That kind of became the expectation in 2018, as each of them took turns knocking each other, and Carroll, down a notch. Until only two remained.

Carroll himself had only one coaching peer to contend with. Ken Whisenhunt was about to go 18-30 in the next three seasons. Steve Spagnuolo was in the middle of a putrid 10-38 stretch himself. While Jonathan Gannon may have proved nothing yet, he hardly appears to be the weak link those men were in 2010.

Still, end of the day, Mike Macdonald was brought in specifically to tame the offenses of rivals. Eventually, he will be judged on that. Showing he can do that early on, a couple times, before the roster is fully remade in his image, would go a long way.

Present Pressure

Few remember Carroll himself was perceived to be on the hot seat entering 2012. Consecutive losing seasons had many wondering how much longer he could survive without promise translating into wins. Another losing campaign might have spelled a grossly premature end to his NFL career.

Which is really to say, Macdonald might benefit immensely from a statement game similar to Beastquake. Obviously there will never be another Marshawn Lynch, or another set of circumstances quite like the 2010 Seahawks encountered, but a game or two in that vein, a short stretch that buys Macdonald a season of goodwill upstairs, in the locker room, and in the stands, well, you would like to see it. Maybe that’s a surprise shutout of the Rams, or a come-from behind victory in San Francisco with a couple of long overdue Brock Purdy picks lending a hand. Maybe a couple blowout wins in November that get people talking playoffs.

Furthermore (what is this, a high school essay?), Macdonald may have less time than anyone thinks to capitalize on his system’s innovativeness. Raise your hand if you’ve heard this before, but the NFL is a copycat league. I’ll yell at Mookie in the back to stop the presses. Just like coaches are scheming to clone and tweak McVay’s offensive principles, the same is happening to MikeMac before he even coaches his first game.

Six teams!

One thing I will say for Macdonald, is that he inherits a roster with some top line talent. If he is truly gifted at putting players where they will succeed the most and harnessing their individual skills, that stands to turbocharge the timeline. (I mean, that’s what Carroll was initially so good at.)

One second thing is, fairly or not, a public perception exists that the previous regime was subpar at making in-game adjustments. If Macdonald has a knack for the chess game within the game, then he will quickly endear himself to the fanbase.

So despite the reasons for optimism (and there are many), is the new guy in trouble after one theoretical 6-11 season to begin his tenure? You’d have to say no. Matching 6-11 seasons? You’d have to say yes. Nobody survives losing for very long, and if Jody Allen is anything like her brother, she won’t hesitate to fumigate preventively, before a culture of mediocrity sets its stink on the V-Mac.

Sans a signature victory or two somewhere in the next season, Macdonald would enter 2025 with a few faint cracks in his credibility and mounting pressure to reach the postseason sooner rather than later. Not to mention delivering the franchise’s first playoff win since 2019. That’s a long time in NFL years for a team with some exciting young players on both sides of the ball. Which brings us to a third kind of pressure...

Talent pressure

Only, all you get today is a tease. Next week, we’ll plunge into the state of the roster and what it means to inherit a mix of top-line talent and unknown quantities. What part of 2024 reminds one of 2010, and what part is diametrically different? These factors shape expectations. The cupboard is not near as bare as it was 14 years ago; the quarterback situations across the division are fluid; and underlying the uncertainty, many Seattle coaches are largely unproven. There’s a window to win a) now, b) soon, or c) after a couple growing-pains-style seasons. There might be pressure from all three points in time.

The unknowns are numerous, yet so thrilling. Honestly it’s just nice to be on one’s toes again, with no real idea how it shakes out, except that things will be different. Maybe even different good.